Eylert Ellefsen

Senior Analyst and Hydrologist

Senior market analyst and hydrology expert at Energy Quantified. He has held various leading positions within power market analysis for Markedskraft/MKonline and now in Energy Quantified. Eylert is the go-to person for questions related to power price formation and hydrology.

Blog posts

German coal closures raise peak prices by nearly 10 €/MWh week 1, lifting Nordic prices

Amongst the 4.8 GW of coal-fired production capacity that was closed down by the end of 2020 were several rather modern plants which often ran at max capacity during peak-hours in Q1 and Q4 last year. We reviewed the potential impact of the German coal-exit in a blog post on 8 December.

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Nordic peak prices strongly connected to the European market after New Year

The times they are a-changin'. Bob Dylan's well-known lyrics can be used to describe what is happening in the Nordic power market after the New Year. After a very bearish 2020, everything is currently bullish: Hydrological balance is declining, the forward prices are increasing, temperatures are below normal, and the spot prices have skyrocketed.

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Will the Norwegian hydro reservoirs normalize in 2021?

The Nordic hydropower situation has been extreme this year. Norway has seen the highest inflow and reservoir levels in a 30-year perspective. By New Year's Day we will see about 13 TWh higher reservoir filling than normal in Norway, and snow/groundwater about 1-2 TWh above normal. We have studied the hydropower situation for 2021 and made some production strategy scenarios and focused on the according export-profiles.

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Impact of German coal closure from January 2021

From 1 January 2021, we will see a closure of 4.8 GW hard coal (8 units), 0.3 GW lignite (Niederaussem D). By the end of 2021, 50% of the remaining nuclear capacity of 8.1 GW will close (Brockdorf, Grohnde, Gundremmingen C).

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