Eylert Ellefsen

Following on from our last blogpost looking at the expected consumption growth in the Nordic countries, Energy Quantified is now looking at the other side of the energy equation. Read on to find out our predictions for production growth across the Nordics and net power balances until 2040.

In October 2021, Energy Quantified (EQ) published a blogpost about the expected growth in electricity consumption across the Nordic countries by 2040. To show the capabilities of EQ’s new long-term consumption data (generated on an hourly basis until 2040 for all individual Nordic price zones) we have updated those previous predictions in this new blogpost. Read on to find out more.

This blog post explores the current low hydrological balance across the Alp region this winter and what that could mean in the event of warmer weather this summer. Hydro reservoir levels this winter are even lower than last year, where we saw very low production levels and river flows during the heatwave which affected Europe. Through the study conducted by EQ we have concluded there is a probability of 20-25% of seeing a similar situation this year, given that the hydrological balance in the Alps for the end of February 2023 is lower than what we saw at the same period in 2022.

Towards the end of 2022, power prices across Europe were extremely high as cold weather, a lack of wind power, strong gas markets and low levels of electricity generation from French nuclear plants all combined to create the power market’s perfect storm. More specifically, French power prices skyrocketed in week 50 as the supply situation became scarce. In reality, power supplies were only secured thanks to reduced consumption and strong imports, supported by all available French power generators running at maximum capacity.