Precipitation across the Alpine region (France, Switzerland, Austria and Italy) has been fairly abundant since mid-October. Inflows and hydropower production have increased significantly as a result. Outlooks for the winter 2024 are also now improved when compared to winters 21/22 and 22/23. This blog will highlight the current conditions and the hydropower outlooks for Q1 2024.
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The outlooks for French power supplies last winter (Q1-23) were quite bullish because of high gas prices and uncertainty around the nuclear situation due to massive outages for corrosion-checks. A potential cold winter also contributed to a strong risk premium in forward markets.
Read StoryFollowing on from our last blogpost looking at the expected consumption growth in the Nordic countries, Energy Quantified is now looking at the other side of the energy equation. Read on to find out our predictions for production growth across the Nordics and net power balances until 2040.
Read StoryIn October 2021, Energy Quantified (EQ) published a blogpost about the expected growth in electricity consumption across the Nordic countries by 2040. To show the capabilities of EQ’s new long-term consumption data (generated on an hourly basis until 2040 for all individual Nordic price zones) we have updated those previous predictions in this new blogpost. Read on to find out more.
Read StoryThis blog post explores the current low hydrological balance across the Alp region this winter and what that could mean in the event of warmer weather this summer. Hydro reservoir levels this winter are even lower than last year, where we saw very low production levels and river flows during the heatwave which affected Europe. Through the study conducted by EQ we have concluded there is a probability of 20-25% of seeing a similar situation this year, given that the hydrological balance in the Alps for the end of February 2023 is lower than what we saw at the same period in 2022.
Read StoryTowards the end of 2022, power prices across Europe were extremely high as cold weather, a lack of wind power, strong gas markets and low levels of electricity generation from French nuclear plants all combined to create the power market’s perfect storm. More specifically, French power prices skyrocketed in week 50 as the supply situation became scarce. In reality, power supplies were only secured thanks to reduced consumption and strong imports, supported by all available French power generators running at maximum capacity.
Read StoryWe’re taking a look at the energy crisis across Europe and Germany, in particular, this winter. Gas prices are soaring, the European gas supply is under pressure when Russia is more or less cutting the gas delivery to Europe. The government in Germany has opened up to bringing back 5.9 GW of mothballed coal units in order to save gas as the country is struggling with its gas supply this winter. In addition, the power balance is worsened by the nuclear closures (4.1 GW) and some coal-fired plants seem to close down according to the coal exit plans despite the initiative from the government to re-start mothballed capacity.
Read StoryThe reservoir levels in Southern Norway are very low as we know. Politicians in Norway meanwhile, against the backdrop of exceptionally high power prices, are discussing the possibility of cutting all foreign power interconnectors to secure the power supply and avoid rationing.
Read StoryFrench nuclear production is expected to reach its lowest production level since 1991 this year. This is mainly because of extended technical inspections and a large number of outages, but reduced production during the heat waves this summer has also played a part. By the end of August, we see that 25 out of 56 French nuclear plants are out of operation, resulting in a production output of 26 GWh/h – which is about 10 GWh/h lower than for the same month last year. EDF has announced production targets of 280-300 TWh for 2022, and 300-330 TWh for 2023. Based on these targets, EQ has studied the power balance outlook for 2022/23 and the nuclear production estimates for the winter.
Read StoryThe European Continent has experienced an extraordinarily hot and dry summer. As a result, there has been a lot of focus on reduced nuclear capacity due to higher river temperatures and low flow rates. In this blog post, EQ will focus on the hydropower situation across the Alp region – having hit the lowest production levels in 25 years this summer. For reference, the Alp region includes Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, and Italy with an accumulated yearly production level of 187 TWh.
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