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Energy Quantified's technical blog on product updates, tips for energy market participants, case studies and more.

Norway-South: Low reservoir filling, will prices increase further?

Eylert Ellefsen
May 9, 2022

The water reservoir filling levels in Norway-South (price zones NO1+NO2+NO5) are heading towards an all-time low at around 15% of capacity this spring (the long-term normal is about 33%). In real terms, the current level is about 10 TWh lower than usually expected.

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German wind power reaches all-time highs in February, reducing spot prices by 50 €/MWh

Eylert Ellefsen
February 28, 2022

Spot prices In Germany came during February out significantly lower than being traded at the end of January. Declining fuel prices towards the end of the month contributed somewhat, but the main reason for lower spot prices was the very strong wind power. EQ has studied the power balance, wind power, and spot price development for February to find how these market factors have come out.

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As Spanish hydropower comes close to an all-time low, will we see a recovery during Q2?

Eylert Ellefsen
February 23, 2022

Across the Iberian Peninsula, hydropower production levels have been extremely low since the New Year. With precipitation levels reaching 40-year lows, hydro production has dived well below normal levels, whilst the hydrological balance has reached a deficit of nearly -10 TWh for Spain. This accounts for around 30% of an average yearly production level.

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Could France become a net-importer with nuclear power at it’s lowest since 1991?

Eylert Ellefsen
February 16, 2022

The available nuclear capacity in France was very low at the end of Q4 last year, whilst outlooks for Q1-2022 were also lower than normal by the end of 2021. Around this time, we published a blog post focusing on the low availability during February, which could mean a strained supply situation in a cold-weather scenario. This was reflected in very strong forward prices for Q1-months during December as markets included strong risk premiums in case of a cold spell.

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Nuclear + Coal Exits in Germany – Status Update January 2022

Eylert Ellefsen
February 7, 2022

The German nuclear and coal exits since 2020 have had a strong influence on the country’s production fleet. In order to identify and illustrate the changes in power generation sources within the last 2 years, EQ has studied the German January power balances for 2020, 2021, and 2022. Initially, we have updated both the exit and capacity plans for the nuclear, as well as the coal-fleet as an introduction to the power balance and production numbers.

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Hydropower Review Alp Region 2021 and Outlooks for 2022

Eylert Ellefsen
January 31, 2022

Electricity generated by hydropower across the Alp region (France, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, and Germany) has an average annual net production of about 187 TWh - covering approximately 14% of total consumption in the area. Of these countries, France has the highest hydropower output at 59 TWh net, while Switzerland and Austria at about 35 TWh are what we would consider as the most typical hydropower areas – which cover about 50% of their consumption from hydropower. This blog post from EQ contains a short review of the hydropower conditions for 2021, as well as a view of the current situation and hydrological balance.

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French market Q1 - a perfect storm?

Eylert Ellefsen
December 20, 2021

Since the start of November, the French power balance has been limited due to low nuclear availability. Given how strongly France is now connected to the GB market, we have seen spot prices close to 300 €/MWh - about 50 €/MWh higher than the German market. As the market continues to be dominated by strong gas and CO2 prices, the French Forward prices for January and February are significantly higher than the latest spot prices, indicating a high positive risk premium in a strained power market. In this blog, EQ takes a closer look into the fundamental power balance numbers for France in Q1-2022, focusing on the outlook for nuclear generation and consumption uncertainty.

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German fuelswitching reversed by the extreme gas prices

Eylert Ellefsen
November 24, 2021

Germany has already begun its coal-exit plans, which started by closing down 4.8 GWs of hard coal by 31.12.2020. The aim is to close all coal-fired units in Germany by 2038, helping to reduce CO2 emissions and fulfill wider EU decarbonisation targets.

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Norway-South is lacking 2000 MW production capacity to cover the border capacities towards both UK and Germany

Eylert Ellefsen
December 20, 2021

Back on September 17th, we posted a blog focusing on the very low hydro reservoir levels in the Norway-South area at the time, alongside the impacts of strong demand for increased imports – required to cover both consumption and demands for exports on the new UK interconnector. In this blog, EQ will look closer at recent development and the outlook for the winter in Norway-South.

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Expected consumption growth in the Nordpool areas, 2030 and beyond

Eylert Ellefsen
October 18, 2021

As the world undergoes the green transition, it is expected that demand for electricity will increase as we look to replace fossil fuels as a source of power.

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