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Energy Quantified's technical blog on product updates, tips for energy market participants, case studies and more.

German coal closures raise peak prices by nearly 10 €/MWh week 1, lifting Nordic prices

Eylert Ellefsen
January 17, 2021

Amongst the 4.8 GW of coal-fired production capacity that was closed down by the end of 2020 were several rather modern plants which often ran at max capacity during peak-hours in Q1 and Q4 last year. We reviewed the potential impact of the German coal-exit in a blog post on 8 December.

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Nordic peak prices strongly connected to the European market after New Year

Eylert Ellefsen
January 17, 2021

The times they are a-changin'. Bob Dylan's well-known lyrics can be used to describe what is happening in the Nordic power market after the New Year. After a very bearish 2020, everything is currently bullish: Hydrological balance is declining, the forward prices are increasing, temperatures are below normal, and the spot prices have skyrocketed.

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Will the Norwegian hydro reservoirs normalize in 2021?

Eylert Ellefsen
December 30, 2020

The Nordic hydropower situation has been extreme this year. Norway has seen the highest inflow and reservoir levels in a 30-year perspective. By New Year's Day we will see about 13 TWh higher reservoir filling than normal in Norway, and snow/groundwater about 1-2 TWh above normal. We have studied the hydropower situation for 2021 and made some production strategy scenarios and focused on the according export-profiles.

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Impact of German coal closure from January 2021

Eylert Ellefsen
December 16, 2020

From 1 January 2021, we will see a closure of 4.8 GW hard coal (8 units), 0.3 GW lignite (Niederaussem D). By the end of 2021, 50% of the remaining nuclear capacity of 8.1 GW will close (Brockdorf, Grohnde, Gundremmingen C).

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The rise and fall of Alpine hydrological balance

Eylert Ellefsen
December 16, 2020

Precipitation levels have fluctuated massively across the Alps this autumn, as a dry November followed a very wet October. In this blog post, you will see how these two months compared to the climate years of 1980-2019 (40 years).

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Hydropower after thunderstorm Alex dampens CWE spot prices by 1.0–1.5 €/MWh

Eylert Ellefsen
October 22, 2020

When thunderstorm Alex hit France and the Alpine region on 2 and 3 October it caused devastating flooding in several areas as precipitation hit once-in-a-century levels. In this blog post, we assess the impact on CWE spot prices and the hydrological balance in the region.

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Alpine flooding caused by once-in-a-century rainfall

Eylert Ellefsen
October 6, 2020

1000 % of normal precipitation over two days.

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French Q4 prices still overpriced – Fearing power shortages in November-December

Eylert Ellefsen
October 6, 2020

In April, EDF sharply cut its nuclear output target for 2020 from the 2019 level of 380 TWh to 300 TWh, and then revised it up again in July to 315-325 TWh. In this blog post, we offer an updated overview of the nuclear outlook, power balance and market prices for the rest of the year.

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COVID-19 impact on European demand – update and outlook

Eylert Ellefsen
September 14, 2020

On 25 April (week 17), EQ published a blog post showing the impact the Corona-virus was having on the consumption for 16 countries across western Europe. As the holiday season has mostly come to an end, we have now reviewed our demand outlook for the rest of the year.

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Austrian hydropower: Extreme precipitation and flooding in week 32 (updated)

Eylert Ellefsen
August 18, 2020

The hydropower situation in Austria is now at a nearly maximum resource level. Production from the reservoirs has to be increased in the coming weeks to avoid further flooding and uncontrolled production levels. So far, we haven't seen any effect on the spot market as the German renewables are the main price drivers. However, the strong Austrian hydropower will contribute to slightly lower domestic spot prices.

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