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Energy Quantified's technical blog on product updates, tips for energy market participants, case studies and more.

Germany re-starts coal-fired plants – will the Q1-23 supply be secured?

Eylert Ellefsen
September 25, 2022

We’re taking a look at the energy crisis across Europe and Germany, in particular, this winter. Gas prices are soaring, the European gas supply is under pressure when Russia is more or less cutting the gas delivery to Europe. The government in Germany has opened up to bringing back 5.9 GW of mothballed coal units in order to save gas as the country is struggling with its gas supply this winter. In addition, the power balance is worsened by the nuclear closures (4.1 GW) and some coal-fired plants seem to close down according to the coal exit plans despite the initiative from the government to re-start mothballed capacity.

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Norway-South facing 15% risk of power rationing in the event of interconnector disconnections

Eylert Ellefsen
September 6, 2022

The reservoir levels in Southern Norway are very low as we know. Politicians in Norway meanwhile, against the backdrop of exceptionally high power prices, are discussing the possibility of cutting all foreign power interconnectors to secure the power supply and avoid rationing.

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French nuclear outages winter 2022/23 and power balance outlook

Eylert Ellefsen
August 22, 2022

French nuclear production is expected to reach its lowest production level since 1991 this year. This is mainly because of extended technical inspections and a large number of outages, but reduced production during the heat waves this summer has also played a part. By the end of August, we see that 25 out of 56 French nuclear plants are out of operation, resulting in a production output of 26 GWh/h – which is about 10 GWh/h lower than for the same month last year. EDF has announced production targets of 280-300 TWh for 2022, and 300-330 TWh for 2023. Based on these targets, EQ has studied the power balance outlook for 2022/23 and the nuclear production estimates for the winter.

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Hydropower production in the Alp region at 25 year-low after the summer drought

Eylert Ellefsen
August 17, 2022

The European Continent has experienced an extraordinarily hot and dry summer. As a result, there has been a lot of focus on reduced nuclear capacity due to higher river temperatures and low flow rates. In this blog post, EQ will focus on the hydropower situation across the Alp region – having hit the lowest production levels in 25 years this summer. For reference, the Alp region includes Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, and Italy with an accumulated yearly production level of 187 TWh.

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Norway-South: Hydro Reservoir scenarios towards December – will the supply situation be threatened next spring?

Eylert Ellefsen
August 17, 2022

There is a strong public focus on the very low hydro reservoir situation in Norway-South as spot prices are surging, and we continue to experience an energy crisis across Europe. How can Norway-South avoid any risk of a supply squeeze?

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Norway-South: Low reservoir filling, will prices increase further?

Eylert Ellefsen
July 14, 2022

The water reservoir filling levels in Norway-South (price zones NO1+NO2+NO5) are heading towards an all-time low at around 15% of capacity this spring (the long-term normal is about 33%). In real terms, the current level is about 10 TWh lower than usually expected.

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German wind power reaches all-time highs in February, reducing spot prices by 50 €/MWh

Eylert Ellefsen
February 28, 2022

Spot prices In Germany came during February out significantly lower than being traded at the end of January. Declining fuel prices towards the end of the month contributed somewhat, but the main reason for lower spot prices was the very strong wind power. EQ has studied the power balance, wind power, and spot price development for February to find how these market factors have come out.

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As Spanish hydropower comes close to an all-time low, will we see a recovery during Q2?

Eylert Ellefsen
February 23, 2022

Across the Iberian Peninsula, hydropower production levels have been extremely low since the New Year. With precipitation levels reaching 40-year lows, hydro production has dived well below normal levels, whilst the hydrological balance has reached a deficit of nearly -10 TWh for Spain. This accounts for around 30% of an average yearly production level.

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Could France become a net-importer with nuclear power at it’s lowest since 1991?

Eylert Ellefsen
February 16, 2022

The available nuclear capacity in France was very low at the end of Q4 last year, whilst outlooks for Q1-2022 were also lower than normal by the end of 2021. Around this time, we published a blog post focusing on the low availability during February, which could mean a strained supply situation in a cold-weather scenario. This was reflected in very strong forward prices for Q1-months during December as markets included strong risk premiums in case of a cold spell.

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Nuclear + Coal Exits in Germany – Status Update January 2022

Eylert Ellefsen
February 7, 2022

The German nuclear and coal exits since 2020 have had a strong influence on the country’s production fleet. In order to identify and illustrate the changes in power generation sources within the last 2 years, EQ has studied the German January power balances for 2020, 2021, and 2022. Initially, we have updated both the exit and capacity plans for the nuclear, as well as the coal-fleet as an introduction to the power balance and production numbers.

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