We’re taking a look at the energy crisis across Europe and Germany, in particular, this winter. Gas prices are soaring, the European gas supply is under pressure when Russia is more or less cutting the gas delivery to Europe. The government in Germany has opened up to bringing back 5.9 GW of mothballed coal units in order to save gas as the country is struggling with its gas supply this winter. In addition, the power balance is worsened by the nuclear closures (4.1 GW) and some coal-fired plants seem to close down according to the coal exit plans despite the initiative from the government to re-start mothballed capacity.
Read StoryThe reservoir levels in Southern Norway are very low as we know. Politicians in Norway meanwhile, against the backdrop of exceptionally high power prices, are discussing the possibility of cutting all foreign power interconnectors to secure the power supply and avoid rationing.
Read StoryFrench nuclear production is expected to reach its lowest production level since 1991 this year. This is mainly because of extended technical inspections and a large number of outages, but reduced production during the heat waves this summer has also played a part. By the end of August, we see that 25 out of 56 French nuclear plants are out of operation, resulting in a production output of 26 GWh/h – which is about 10 GWh/h lower than for the same month last year. EDF has announced production targets of 280-300 TWh for 2022, and 300-330 TWh for 2023. Based on these targets, EQ has studied the power balance outlook for 2022/23 and the nuclear production estimates for the winter.
Read StoryThe European Continent has experienced an extraordinarily hot and dry summer. As a result, there has been a lot of focus on reduced nuclear capacity due to higher river temperatures and low flow rates. In this blog post, EQ will focus on the hydropower situation across the Alp region – having hit the lowest production levels in 25 years this summer. For reference, the Alp region includes Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, and Italy with an accumulated yearly production level of 187 TWh.
Read StoryThere is a strong public focus on the very low hydro reservoir situation in Norway-South as spot prices are surging, and we continue to experience an energy crisis across Europe. How can Norway-South avoid any risk of a supply squeeze?
Read StoryThe water reservoir filling levels in Norway-South (price zones NO1+NO2+NO5) are heading towards an all-time low at around 15% of capacity this spring (the long-term normal is about 33%). In real terms, the current level is about 10 TWh lower than usually expected.
Read StorySpot prices In Germany came during February out significantly lower than being traded at the end of January. Declining fuel prices towards the end of the month contributed somewhat, but the main reason for lower spot prices was the very strong wind power. EQ has studied the power balance, wind power, and spot price development for February to find how these market factors have come out.
Read StoryAcross the Iberian Peninsula, hydropower production levels have been extremely low since the New Year. With precipitation levels reaching 40-year lows, hydro production has dived well below normal levels, whilst the hydrological balance has reached a deficit of nearly -10 TWh for Spain. This accounts for around 30% of an average yearly production level.
Read StoryThe available nuclear capacity in France was very low at the end of Q4 last year, whilst outlooks for Q1-2022 were also lower than normal by the end of 2021. Around this time, we published a blog post focusing on the low availability during February, which could mean a strained supply situation in a cold-weather scenario. This was reflected in very strong forward prices for Q1-months during December as markets included strong risk premiums in case of a cold spell.
Read StoryThe German nuclear and coal exits since 2020 have had a strong influence on the country’s production fleet. In order to identify and illustrate the changes in power generation sources within the last 2 years, EQ has studied the German January power balances for 2020, 2021, and 2022. Initially, we have updated both the exit and capacity plans for the nuclear, as well as the coal-fleet as an introduction to the power balance and production numbers.
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