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Energy Quantified's technical blog on product updates, tips for energy market participants, case studies and more.

Spot prices increase as Central Western European hydropower production hits 25 year low

Eylert Ellefsen
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May 3, 2021

This April has seen a notably cold spell of weather sweep across Europe. Temperatures have been 4 or 5 degrees Celsius below normal in most areas, whilst spot prices for the past month have delivered 5-7 €/MWh higher than expected in several areas. In this blog post, we study how the Central Western European (CWE) hydropower system developed during this cold spell and compared this situation to available historical statistics.

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Delayed spring thaw inflow for Sweden – detailed modelling with SMHI Hydro GWh

Eylert Ellefsen
,
April 22, 2021

The temperature outlooks until the first week of May are much lower than normal in the Nordic region. Read on to see the likely consequences for inflow- and snow conditions in SE1 and SE2.

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Germany avoided a supply squeeze this winter, but what next?

Eylert Ellefsen
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March 16, 2021

When Germany closed down 4.8 GW hard coal plants this winter, the impact could have been severe, but the average output from German coal plants increased year-on-year due to a positive clean dark spread. That escape from a capacity squeeze will be harder to avoid next year as more capacity will closed down.

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Spanish February spot halved on massive precipitation, hydropower production

Eylert Ellefsen
,
March 8, 2021

Spanish spot prices were nearly halved in February, dropping 32 €/MWh on the back of exceptionally high hydropower output, reduced consumption and lower SRMC for gas.

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Record precipitation and hydropower production in the SEE region subdue spot prices

Eylert Ellefsen
,
March 2, 2021

Precipitation across Southeastern Europe (SEE) in weeks 1-7 were the highest on record, pushing hydropower production to record highs as well, at nearly twice the 2019 and 2020 levels.

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Nordic hydrology 5 months from now: What can we tell you?

Eylert Ellefsen
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February 18, 2021

The Nordic hydrological balance has weakened by about 10 TWh since the beginning of the year. Our models still show it's more likely than not that the balance will have recovered to above normal levels by the end of July.

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Electricity demand is back across Europe!

Eylert Ellefsen
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February 8, 2021

According to our numbers, electricity consumption in Europe has recovered faster than expected in Continental Europe and the Nordic market during Q3 and Q4.

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Trading the short-term market – how well are the traders doing in the CWE and SEE markets?

Eylert Ellefsen
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February 1, 2021

We have seen interesting price movements in the Central Western Europe (CWE) and South Eastern Europe (SEE) powermarkets at the start of 2021, but how well did traders position themselves in the week- and month-ahead contracts in these markets?

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German coal closures raise peak prices by nearly 10 €/MWh week 1, lifting Nordic prices

Eylert Ellefsen
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January 13, 2021

Amongst the 4.8 GW of coal-fired production capacity that was closed down by the end of 2020 were several rather modern plants which often ran at max capacity during peak-hours in Q1 and Q4 last year. We reviewed the potential impact of the German coal-exit in a blog post on 8 December.

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Nordic peak prices strongly connected to the European market after New Year

Eylert Ellefsen
,
January 7, 2021

The times they are a-changin'. Bob Dylan's well-known lyrics can be used to describe what is happening in the Nordic power market after the New Year. After a very bearish 2020, everything is currently bullish: Hydrological balance is declining, the forward prices are increasing, temperatures are below normal, and the spot prices have skyrocketed.

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