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Energy Quantified's technical blog on product updates, tips for energy market participants, case studies and more.

Record precipitation and hydropower production in the SEE region subdue spot prices

Eylert Ellefsen

Precipitation across Southeastern Europe (SEE) in weeks 1-7 were the highest on record, pushing hydropower production to record highs as well, at nearly twice the 2019 and 2020 levels.

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Nordic hydrology 5 months from now: What can we tell you?

Eylert Ellefsen

The Nordic hydrological balance has weakened by about 10 TWh since the beginning of the year. Our models still show it's more likely than not that the balance will have recovered to above normal levels by the end of July.

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Electricity demand is back across Europe!

Eylert Ellefsen

According to our numbers, electricity consumption in Europe has recovered faster than expected in Continental Europe and the Nordic market during Q3 and Q4.

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Trading the short-term market – how well are the traders doing in the CWE and SEE markets?

Eylert Ellefsen

We have seen interesting price movements in the Central Western Europe (CWE) and South Eastern Europe (SEE) powermarkets at the start of 2021, but how well did traders position themselves in the week- and month-ahead contracts in these markets?

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German coal closures raise peak prices by nearly 10 €/MWh week 1, lifting Nordic prices

Eylert Ellefsen

Amongst the 4.8 GW of coal-fired production capacity that was closed down by the end of 2020 were several rather modern plants which often ran at max capacity during peak-hours in Q1 and Q4 last year. We reviewed the potential impact of the German coal-exit in a blog post on 8 December.

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Nordic peak prices strongly connected to the European market after New Year

Eylert Ellefsen

The times they are a-changin'. Bob Dylan's well-known lyrics can be used to describe what is happening in the Nordic power market after the New Year. After a very bearish 2020, everything is currently bullish: Hydrological balance is declining, the forward prices are increasing, temperatures are below normal, and the spot prices have skyrocketed.

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Will the Norwegian hydro reservoirs normalize in 2021?

Eylert Ellefsen

The Nordic hydropower situation has been extreme this year. Norway has seen the highest inflow and reservoir levels in a 30-year perspective. By New Year's Day we will see about 13 TWh higher reservoir filling than normal in Norway, and snow/groundwater about 1-2 TWh above normal. We have studied the hydropower situation for 2021 and made some production strategy scenarios and focused on the according export-profiles.

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Impact of German coal closure from January 2021

Eylert Ellefsen

From 1 January 2021, we will see a closure of 4.8 GW hard coal (8 units), 0.3 GW lignite (Niederaussem D). By the end of 2021, 50% of the remaining nuclear capacity of 8.1 GW will close (Brockdorf, Grohnde, Gundremmingen C).

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The rise and fall of Alpine hydrological balance

Eylert Ellefsen

Precipitation levels have fluctuated massively across the Alps this autumn, as a dry November followed a very wet October. In this blog post, you will see how these two months compared to the climate years of 1980-2019 (40 years).

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Market indicators for South-Eastern Europe – week 46

Eylert Ellefsen

Energy Quantified is preparing to create market reports, where we look at the main market indicators on a weekly perspective. This blog series is a sneak peek into the content of the reports.

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