Fundamentals and hydrology

More than just price drivers

Curated actuals, seasonal normals and several alternative forecasts offers you the option to chose alternative input on the fly. Below are only a few of the fundamentals we support:

Residual production

The price-dependent part of indigenous power production, defined as: Residual load - Nuclear - Net import. Maybe the single most important price driver.

Residual load

The price-independent part of indigenous power supply, defined as: Consumption - Wind - Solar. An important price driver, capturing weather driven shifts.

Consumption

Load and effects of weather and social patterns quantified into MWh/h for such variables as heating and cooling demand, artificial light, wind chill, moving holidays, bridging days and economic growth.

Solar photovoltaic

Historical and future expected capacities combined with e.g. local insolation and dispersion, taking into account the earth's relative position to the sun and quantified into MWh/h.

Wind power

Spatial distribution of capacity and chosen technology, combined with e.g. local wind speed & direction, air pressure and scrubbing effect quantified into MWh/h.

Net precipitation energy

Rainwater capture areas, installed hydro production and reservoir capacities, combined with precipitation and evaporation which is quantified into potential energy content.

Nuclear

Installed and running capacity combined with live REMIT and price outlook information quantified into running production forecasts.

Hydro power

Current hydrological situation and price outlook quantified into production from reservoirs and run-of-river plants.

Conventional thermal and CHP

Relative SRMCs and residual production outlook quantified into supply from thermal power sources. Pending.

For each weather-driven variable

Curated actuals, seasonal normals and several alternative weather forecasting models.

Curated actuals

All available actual data are prone to errors. Using our forecasting model, EQ provide curated historical data, creating a consistent history going back several years. A perfect source for modelling purposes.

Forecasts

Up to twenty-six daily forecasts based on leading weather forecast models such as ECMWF, NCEP GFS and Deutsche Wetterdienst (ICON-EU).

Normals

Seasonal normals are estimated running 30-40 weather years through each model, factoring in social patterns, expected consumption trends, capacity changes, efficiency improvements for wind and solar, and more.

Fundamental climate data

Analyse the potential weather-driven variations in demand and supply for each variable separately or combined. Use the true variability distribution in our risk assessments and get rid of the black swans.

Fundamentals