Back to Blog

SEE hydrology and an exciting August?

Eylert Ellefsen
Archived blog post. This blog post has been transferred from our previous blogging platform. Links and images may not work as intended.

August can become an exciting month for traders in the SEE region. Recent precipitation forecasts have remained very dry. If these continue, there will be a further reduction in hydropower production and an additional upward pressure on spot-prices in the SEE-region. This is the conclusion gleaned from EQ’s new Pan European hydro model, which will be launched soon.The chart illustrates the status on hydrological balances at the beginning of August for Romania and Serbia.

Follow EQ's hydro project

In this blog we focus on Romania and Serbia, the areas that cover about 70% of all hydropower in the SEE region. However, our coverage is of course for all countries. The aim is to support high-resolution production forecasts to quantify the contextual importance of hydrology.

Status one week into August

At the start of August, EQ’s new model indicates a significant 10 percent surplus in Romania while Serbia has a deficit of 4 percent of its seasonal normal. If the current trend continues we expect reservoirs to decline in August. Note the significant difference in the percentage filling one should expect between the two countries at the start of August.

Why care about water?

Covering 25% of hydropower supply is normally an essential physical price driver in the SEE region. Our new models indicate a noticeable decline in hydropower production across SEE during July. As a result, we have seen increasing spot levels towards the end of the month. Rising fuel-prices has also contributed, but not enough to explain the full price movement.

   



Romania and Serbia are the primary hydropower producers in the region. The two countries have built the Iron Gate power plants, the by far largest hydropower plants in the area, covering about 40%, and 65% of the power supply respectively in Romania and Serbia.

Hydropower statistics and July data

The production and reservoir charts for Romania show very clearly that the production increased sharply during May with strong water flow along the Danube (Iron Gate) and increased reservoir filling.

 

In July, output fell to less than 50% of the maximum level in June. For Serbia, we simulate a production profile very similar to the total Iron Gate profile, not surprisingly as their share of Iron Gate represents 65% of their total generation.

The content above is an extract from our hydro modelling project for the SEE area.

More from the Blog

Norway – can water spillage be avoided?

Eylert Ellefsen

An extreme hydrological situation across Norway. The hydrological balance by the end of February is estimated to be 22.5 TWh, which is close to an all-time high. During the last 20 years, we have only seen comparable situations during 2000 and 2005.

Read Story

Energy Quantified's Eylert Ellefsen on Montel Weekly podcast

Jon Moen Drange

Hydro levels in the Nordic region are at levels never seen before at this time of year, while southern parts of Europe have also been very wet. Listen to Mr Hydrology, aka Eylert Ellefsen, talk about the unusually high precipitation and the impact on wholesale power prices from Trondheim to Tarragona.

Read Story

Normalized hydropower situation in the Southeast Europe by Christmas and New Year's Eve

Eylert Ellefsen

Despite a dry spell in October, the hydropower situation in Southeast Europe improved significantly during a wet November. Throughout December, the situation has normalized in most areas.

Read Story

Ready to try Energy Quantified?

No payment or credit card required.
Would you rather like a personal demo? Book one here with Hugo