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Normalized hydropower situation in the Southeast Europe by Christmas and New Year's Eve

Eylert Ellefsen
Archived blog post. This blog post has been transferred from our previous blogging platform. Links and images may not work as intended.

Despite a dry spell in October, the hydropower situation in Southeast Europe improved significantly during a wet November. Throughout December, the situation has normalized in most areas.

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In short, we can summarize the hydropower situation for Southeast Europe, including Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Romania, Montenegro, North-Macedonia, Bulgaria and Greece, as follows:

  1. Hydrological balance across the region is slightly positive before the New Year's Eve.
  2. Precipitation outlooks for the Christmas and New Year’s weeks show about 115% of normal
  3. Production outlooks for the Christmas and New Year’s weeks are close to 100% of normal.

Background and current situation

The hydrological balance across the region is slightly higher than the long-term normal, so the hydropower supply situation is adequate before Q1-2020. Looking at Romania and Serbia, we see that both inflow and production increased during November, then somewhat decreased during the first part of December. The latest weather forecast indicates increased inflow levels during the Christmas period.

About a quarter of the total supply in the region is hydropower, so variations hydro production has a strong impact on the power market.

Estimated hydrological balance at the end of week 51. Note that the numbers are shown as the deviation from the normal. Numbers in TWh.
Hydrological balance for Romania.
Snow and groundwater for Romania.
Water reservoir filling for Romania.

Outlooks for the Christmas week and towards New Year’s Eve

The general outlook towards the Christmas period and New Year’s Eve is that we will see lots of precipitation start of the Christmas week (51), but production outlooks are close to normal.

For the entire region, our estimates show 125% and 110% of normal precipitation for weeks 51 and 52 respectively. The hydropower production for week 51 is estimated to come close to the normal in the region as a whole. This means about 1 TWh for the entire week or an hourly average production of 6350 MWh/h.

Closing words

The Montel-EQ team provides you with updated hydrological analysis throughout the Christmas period, preparing you for the start of the new year.

If you have any questions regarding the hydropower situation here or anywhere else in Europe, please send me an email at eylert@energyquantified.com.

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