Back to Blog

COVID-19 cuts Europe’s annual consumption by ≈124 TWh

Eylert Ellefsen
Archived blog post. This blog post has been transferred from our previous blogging platform. Links and images may not work as intended.

European power demand has recovered faster than anticipated as lockdowns have been eased across Europe, but EQ’s latest forecast shows annual demand in 16 western European countries will still drop to around 3% below normal levels.

Consumption reduction curves, average Western Europe (%) - wk 22 vs wk17 - EQ estimates

EQ has this week updated its European demand recovery forecast from that made in week 17. The key takeaways are:

  • Weather adjusted demand recovery between weeks 17-22 has been faster than forecast (base scenario) but slowed downlast week (wk 22).
  • Consumption by week 22 is very close to EQ’s forecasted profile from week 17.
  • Our base scenario assumes the recovery profile for the rest of the year will match that issued in wk 17, which amounts to a 3.1 % annual reduction inpower demand for the 16 countries surveyed.
Consumption reduction curves by areas (%) – wk 22 – EQ estimate

All in all, this year’s demand slump is less pronounced than that caused by the financial crisis in 2009, when European demand fell around 6%.

Forecast annual demand changes - EQ estimate wk 22

EQ continually updates demand forecats for all of Europe, in addition to forecating all power fundamentals.

More from the Blog

Austrian hydropower: Extreme precipitation and flooding in week 32

Eylert Ellefsen

The hydropower situation in Austria is now at a nearly maximum resource level. Production from the reservoirs has to be increased in the coming weeks to avoid further flooding and uncontrolled production levels. So far, we haven't seen any effect on the spot market as the German renewables are the main price drivers. However, the strong Austrian hydropower will contribute to slightly lower domestic spot prices.

Read Story

Yr-2021 power contracts: Massive market movements, uncertainty and COVID-19 recovery

Eylert Ellefsen

The market outlooks for 2021 are very exciting with uncertainty about French nuclear capacity, effects of German coal-fired and nuclear phase-outs, and consumption and financial recovery from COVID-19. In addition, there is an upward potential for both CO2 and gas prices.

Read Story

Romanian hydropower situation back to normal?

Eylert Ellefsen

The hydropower situation in Romania and most of Southeastern Europe improved in July after a wet June. Price differences between Austra (CWE region) and Hungary/Romania (SEE region) are significantly reduced from the start of Q2. Outlooks for August indicate that the price difference most likely will come out lower than 7 €/MWh which has been traded in the end of July.

Read Story

Ready to try Energy Quantified?

No payment or credit card required.
Would you rather like a personal demo? Book one here with Hugo