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After a late spring thaw, expect a jump in Swedish inflows and run-of-river production

Eylert Ellefsen
Archived blog post. This blog post has been transferred from our previous blogging platform. Links and images may not work as intended.

Some key observations:                              

  • SE1 inflows will hit a new maximum from June 15th as the snow level in the northernmost area is still well above normal.
  • Inflows in SE2 are culminating this week as the snow level declines.  
Inflow statistics SE1 (normal: 2000-2020)
Inflow statistics SE2 (normal: 2000-2020)

The delayed spring thaw and inflow means that the normal increase in run-river production (ROR) during the melting period has been delayed, too.

New run-of-river models:

EQ has recently developed run-river production models for all main rivers in Sweden (with SE1 and SE2 having the highest relevance).

The following charts from our online service show the development for ROR-production thisyear compared to average, 95%- and 5%-tile for the period 2000-2020:

Weekly run-of-river production SE1
Weekly run-of-river production SE2

We observe the very delayed increase for SE1, and the increasing trend for SE2.

EQ expects run-river production will increase the next few weeks before culminating in the latter part of June.

The short-term (buffer) reservoirs in SE1 and SE2 are excepted to reach their summer-levels in a week or two.

Conclusions:

  • From the end of June, the run-river production will be more exposed to the precipitation situation as the melting period comes to an end.
  • Pricewise, this means the downward pressure on spot prices from the Swedish hydropower system will continue until the end of June.

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