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Energy Quantified's technical blog on product updates, tips for energy market participants, case studies and more.

Nuclear + Coal Exits in Germany – Status Update January 2022

Eylert Ellefsen
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February 4, 2022

The German nuclear and coal exits since 2020 have had a strong influence on the country’s production fleet. In order to identify and illustrate the changes in power generation sources within the last 2 years, EQ has studied the German January power balances for 2020, 2021, and 2022. Initially, we have updated both the exit and capacity plans for the nuclear, as well as the coal-fleet as an introduction to the power balance and production numbers.

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Hydropower Review Alp Region 2021 and Outlooks for 2022

Eylert Ellefsen
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January 31, 2022

Electricity generated by hydropower across the Alp region (France, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, and Germany) has an average annual net production of about 187 TWh - covering approximately 14% of total consumption in the area. Of these countries, France has the highest hydropower output at 59 TWh net, while Switzerland and Austria at about 35 TWh are what we would consider as the most typical hydropower areas – which cover about 50% of their consumption from hydropower. This blog post from EQ contains a short review of the hydropower conditions for 2021, as well as a view of the current situation and hydrological balance.

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French market Q1 - a perfect storm?

Eylert Ellefsen
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December 14, 2021

Since the start of November, the French power balance has been limited due to low nuclear availability. Given how strongly France is now connected to the GB market, we have seen spot prices close to 300 €/MWh - about 50 €/MWh higher than the German market. As the market continues to be dominated by strong gas and CO2 prices, the French Forward prices for January and February are significantly higher than the latest spot prices, indicating a high positive risk premium in a strained power market. In this blog, EQ takes a closer look into the fundamental power balance numbers for France in Q1-2022, focusing on the outlook for nuclear generation and consumption uncertainty.

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German fuelswitching reversed by the extreme gas prices

Eylert Ellefsen
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November 24, 2021

Germany has already begun its coal-exit plans, which started by closing down 4.8 GWs of hard coal by 31.12.2020. The aim is to close all coal-fired units in Germany by 2038, helping to reduce CO2 emissions and fulfill wider EU decarbonisation targets.

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Norway-South is lacking 2000 MW production capacity to cover the border capacities towards both UK and Germany

Eylert Ellefsen
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November 16, 2021

Back on September 17th, we posted a blog focusing on the very low hydro reservoir levels in the Norway-South area at the time, alongside the impacts of strong demand for increased imports – required to cover both consumption and demands for exports on the new UK interconnector. In this blog, EQ will look closer at recent development and the outlook for the winter in Norway-South.

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Expected consumption growth in the Nordpool areas, 2030 and beyond

Eylert Ellefsen
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October 13, 2021

As the world undergoes the green transition, it is expected that demand for electricity will increase as we look to replace fossil fuels as a source of power.

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Nordic power prices rise on low hydro reservoir levels

Eylert Ellefsen
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September 17, 2021

Recently, the Nordic power market’s exposure to the current low hydrological balance and very high European power market prices have had a strong influence on power prices. This blog will focus on the situation in Norway South, which accounts for most of the hydrological deficit in the Nordic market.

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CWE hydrology stabilized after the flooding incidents

Eylert Ellefsen
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July 26, 2021

We have sadly all now seen the pictures from the devastating flooding that recently hit Germany, Belgium and other neighbouring countries. After several weeks in which precipitation continued above normal levels, these areas were hit by about 500% of normal precipitation during week 28 (July 12th - 18th) leading to a scenario where riverflows destroyed several villages and many people lost their lives. Our thoughts go out to the victims, their families and those making rescue efforts. Whilst unimportant given the context, the unprecedented rainfall has also affected power markets and those hydrological impacts will be the focus of this blog.

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German coal production for Q2 2021 reduces 20% on pre-pandemic levels

Eylert Ellefsen
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July 8, 2021

With power market conditions fluctuating in response to changing consumption demands as economies across Europe look to kickstart the green recovery after the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, Eylert Ellefsen, Senior Analyst and Hydrology Expert at Energy Quantified presents a comparison of the German power balance between Q2-2019 and Q2-2021.

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Low spot prices in NP-north area, will the power balance situation be eased during Q3?

Eylert Ellefsen
,
June 28, 2021

In this blog, Energy Quantified's Eylert Ellefsen dives into the fundamental power balance numbers in the NP-North area, explaining the current surplus situation, grid flows between price zones and future outlooks for the summer. Please note, we use the terminology "NP-North" to refer to the SE1, SE2, NO3 & NO4 price areas.

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