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Energy Quantified's technical blog on product updates, tips for energy market participants, case studies and more.

Fuels lifted French and German July prices

Eylert Ellefsen

European spot prices turned out significantly higher in June than what the market expected by the end of May. In this blog post, we’re reviewing the main reasons, focusing on France and Germany.

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French Q4 prices likely overpriced due to 300 TWh nuclear target

Eylert Ellefsen

France’s decision to cut the country’s nuclear production target for 2020 spooked markets, but given normal weather conditions Q4 prices for France should come down significantly from current levels, an EQ analysis of the fundamental situation indicates.

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After a dry 1st half of the year, precipitation ups hydropower output in the SEE/Balkan region

Eylert Ellefsen

Overall hydropower production in the SEE region has until week 24 been at about 70% of normal, but a recent surge in precipitation has improved inflows in the region, where hydropower represents 20%-25% of overall power supply.

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Reviewing the German power market 2018-2020 using EQ data

Eylert Ellefsen

Power markets have changed a lot since the start of 2018 due to stronger EUA-prices and falling gas- and coal prices. To illustrate how customers can benefit from our pool of market data, we have reviewed German power market developments since the start of 2018.

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After a late spring thaw, expect a jump in Swedish inflows and run-of-river production

Eylert Ellefsen

Inflows in SE1 and SE2 were below the seasonal normal until the last week of May (wk 22), but EQ analysis shows a strong increase in inflow and run-of-river production from the beginning of June (wk 23 and onwards).

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France’s hydro reservoir filling hits new high and expected to rise further

Eylert Ellefsen

EQ on Wednesday forecast France hydro reservoir filling will reach close to 80% of max capacity by the end of next week (wk 24) and will continue rising given normal levels of precipitation and inflow.

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COVID-19 cuts Europe’s annual consumption by ≈124 TWh

Eylert Ellefsen

European power demand has recovered faster than anticipated as lockdowns have been eased across Europe, but EQ’s latest forecast shows annual demand in 16 western European countries will still drop to around 3% below normal levels.

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Extreme melting & inflow with a risk of 10 TWh spillage

Eylert Ellefsen

EQ hydrology forecasts show inflow to Norwegian reservoirs will average 180% of normal levels over the coming two weeks, as higher temperatures accelerate the spring melt.

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