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Video: Spot Market Sensitivities

Hugo Birkelund
Archived blog post. This blog post has been transferred from our previous blogging platform. Links and images may not work as intended.

Have you ever wondered how price sensitive your spot market is? Which hours that could rise sharply or dive into the negative?

As you know, Energy Quantified provides spot market forecasts throughout Europe. Now we use the model system to simulate and report the market sensitivities too. The aim is to provide insight into when a relatively small change the market balance could cause the price level to rise or fall sharply.

Deeper insight into the current market conditions

Our reports on sensitivities reveal information about the market conditions that are not disclosed by the conventional price prognoses. For instance, could the night hours fall through the floor or come out surprisingly high? And what does it take to move the price 1, 2, 5, or even 10 €/MWh?

As an analyst, reports on market sensitivities reveal the current properties of the relevant part of the bidding/supply curve. At the same time they indicate to which degree the price effect of a shift in the market balance could be mitigated through import and export. The latter would, in turn, be affected by a wide array of contextual circumstances, like available exchange capacity, the price levels, and supply curves in the adjoining markets.

I have no doubt that, to grasp the net effect all these factors in €/MWh, one needs to simulate market sensitivities. Furthermore, due to the fast changing market conditions, sensitivities must be updated in close to real-time in order to capture the situation as of "now."

Energy Quantified explains you the main points in a short video.

The video shows you

  • How are the market sensitivities simulated?
  • How the market situation in the adjoining markets affects the sensitivities
  • How the amount of available capacity affects how sensitive a market is
  • Where to find the sensitivities for your area

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