Timeline of our progress
Energy Quantified is
We ship new features early and often.
Give feedback and shape the service.
We call it early access.
A new and more accurate price driving variable is added to EQ’s database. We have named it Residual production. The new variable is derived using the fact that an area’s power usage must equal its indigenous production, plus import. Put down as an equation you get that at all times: Consumption + Export = Wind + SPV + Nuc + Import + Residual production. Rearranging yields the following expression:Residual production = Con – Wind – SPV – Nuc + net Export = Residual load - Nuc + net Export. The first equation shows that Residual production simply equals the production that is not explained, yet. However, the variable is very much dependent on the highly volatile variable, net Export. Feel free to help yourselves in our database.
Obviously, the development in available capacity is an important input in forecasting nuclear production. However, we have also found the expected spot price to add a surprisingly high explanatory power to our nuclear output forecasting model. Particularly for France and Germany. Feel free to contact us for more information.
The forecasts are available via our Balance page and our self-service database. Contact us for more information.
Continuing our preparation for the short-term markets coverage, EQ added data feed on the regulating markets. Both prices and volumes are shown on our web and of course downloadable via our service database.
EQ fetch, display and now also translates all REMIT/UMM messages into numeric curves for each production unit, power flow line and demand unit with responsibility for reporting interruptions. The Excel integrator is upgraded to facilitate a convenient download of these variables. Test it with EQ’s self-service database.
EQ has started to roll out a data feed on individual production units in Europe. A demo page for all French nuclear units is launched. The data is made available via our database. Data and curves for individual units are easily found looking for “@localation”. Searching for “FR” and “prod” would, e.g. display all units available for France.
Preparing for comprehensive coverage of the short-term markets, EQ added data feed on the imbalance market. Both prices and volumes are depicted. A forecast service on imbalance prices is the next step on this part of the market. Data is, of course, available on our self-service database.
We have launched a complete feed of the REMIT messages. Under the section Early Access you may browse by country/your area, filter by lead time(products) and sort by message type: production, demand and exchange. Note that the messages relevant for available transfer capacity is already included in the spot price simulation and graphed with the power flow forecasts under the Spot section.
EQ employs Early Access to secure relevance and swift completion of our product development. By adding a section dedicated to our projects we offer you an improved view of our product development. At launch, we show you three projects, REMIT, Production on units and information on the regulating market. As we move on these three will find its places among the regular services and information on new projects will be added. Feedback would be highly appreciated.
Please be informed that we have added SPV in Turkey and Northern Ireland. Added fundamentals contain curated historical data, seasonal normals and all the 24 alternative daily forecasts on 15 minutes.
EQ continues to add forecasts as new information surfaces. This time we have added wind power production in Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia and Macedonia. As usual, the added fundamentals contain curated historical data, seasonal normals and all the 24 alternative daily forecasts we quantify. Of course, all on 15 minutes resolution and lead time from next 15 minutes to 45 days.
Tell us your favorite stations or define your regional area and EQ provides all related weather data and fundamentals. Receive in real time historical backcast, seasonal normals and many alternative forecasts, with from 72 hours to 45 days lead time. Contact us.
Adding historical reservoir data is a part of our preparation for our new hydrologist, starting 1. April 2019. At this junction, we start to provide reservoir numbers for all areas issued by the TSO’s/data vendors in Europe. However, pending the advent of our new hydrologist, EQ intents to offer hydrology curated historical data and forecasts on the same high resolution and updated frequency as the rest of our fundamentals. Talk to us if you want to learn more.
We have added SPV for Poland and Hungary. The installed capacity and SPV production in these countries is limited. That said, it is not possible to tell which MWh that moves the market. These additions follow a development pattern and ideology where becoming complete is an integrated part of our strategy. We aim to fill the database with curated historical data and historical forecasts on these two variables too. As always, the data are available in our database. Help your selves!
We continue to add newly available information as a soon as it released from TSO and authorities. This time we have added day ahead schedules for 18 missing borders in central and eastern Europe. The new curves are related to these price areas: SI, IT-NORD, CZ, HU, CH HR, HU, PL and SK. As always, after a curating procedure, new data are immediately implemented in our reporting system and made available via EQ’s web and database. Welcome to help your self in our database.
We have started to add REMIT numbers. From now on you find Exchange Net Transfer Capacity from REMIT in our database. The REMIT capacities is also included in the spot market simulation and will soon be displayed on the spot report.
ECMWF expanded their forecasts system with two new models, a short-range deterministic and short-range ensemble model. Because of this we upgraded our service, including the drop-down functionality in our Excel Integrator.
A new short-range EC ensemble model is added and quantified. The upgrade is the last in a two-stage upgrade of the ECMWF model system. The first step was to include a 90-hour short range EC deterministic model. The added model is initiated 06 and 18. The new model has a 144-hour lead time runs on hourly resolution. At the same time the current ensemble model is updated with hourly time-step for the first 90 hours too.
A new short range EC deterministic model is added and quantified. The added model is initiated 06 and 18. The new model has a 90-hour lead time runs on hourly resolution. At the same time the current deterministic model is updated with hourly time-step for the first 90 hours too. The upgrade is the first step in a two-stage upgrade of the ECMWF model system. The next step is to include a 144-hour short range EC ensemble model. We expect the upgrade to be complete in week 50.
From the |outset, EQ has supported ensemble forecasting. Adding a dedicated page for ensemble forecasts, EQ makes it easier to, view, compare and assess the weather driven uncertainty linked to weather-driven fundamentals. As our users have grown accustomed, you might, of course, add or remove a wide variety of deterministic forecasts in the same view too.
Ever wondered: Which hours could rise sharply or fall into negative prices? Using our spot model system, we simulate and depict the market sensitivities for all price areas in Europe. We have aggregated the results for you too. Scroll down for the recent development, or browse to see the sensitivities in other markets.
Consumption normals with improved handling of holidays vacation is re-estimated and uploaded
The new data source will expectedly improve the forecast quality.
Acquiring a complete set of historical forecasts is conventionally considered to be a costly and time-consuming process. We have just removed all of the time and money wasting steps. With EQ it is like this, assuming you have claimed your EQ access: Find the variables you are looking for. 2. State the start and the stop times 3. Press enter. Instead of transferring large data sets to your system you may choose to save your search settings, and get back to our database for more information later. So far available for Wind and SPV power production. More variables to be included as we move on. Stay tuned.
Added daily weather comments for Nord Pool and Continental Europe, in cooperation with the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). The additions of daily comments complement the comments on both the four-week- and the seasonal weather forecasts available on Energy Quantified since our launch in February 2018. Several comments are issued daily: Comments for EC00, EC12, EC00 ensemble, EC12 ensemble and GFS00 are published every morning for both Scandinavia and central Europe. Comments based on the GFS06 is published later once the forecast is published.
The report yields historical info and forecasts on price differences in adjoining markets throughout Europe. Price differences are mainly defined and changed by shifts in the relative costs in power production, relative demand elasticises, available flow capacity and flow regime. All price areas are in principle interlinked. This means that say, a price change in Spain, could affect the relative price difference between Germany and Poland, although they do not share a common border with Spain. The EQ spot model system yields continuously updated forecast and convenient retrieval of historical data of price differences for all price areas. We believe the report will become a convenient source of historical info on price ratios on Europe too.
This feature in the API and Excel Integrator retrieves all previous forecasts made any date, regardless of lead time. It is a feature in the API and Excel making it extremely simple to retrieving lead time data and making lead time analysis. The function works on all forecasts EQ provides.
With twenty or more weather forecasts being updated every day, it's hard to keep track of all the update times. With this latest visualization, visible on the top of the web app, you will always know which forecasts are being updated, which ones are the newest and when the next forecast will come.
Using a better interpolation algorithm yielding a better profile of intra-hour distribution of photovoltaic production.
Since the launch, the spot price and power flow forecast for 67 price areas has run uninterrupted for 45 days. We believe it is stable and hence take the model out of BETA. The self-learning element in the dynamic estimation of the biding curve and inclusion of more variables will push up the performance further. We will now start adding more reporting features. True to our Early Access policy your suggestions would be appreciated.
This feature in the API and Excel Integrator helps you to answer the question: What is the forecast made for n-days ahead? The functionality returns a time series like curve, making advanced benchmark extremely convenient and intuitive. The functionality is available for all forecasts.
Added historical data for nuclear production in the data base for all relevant countries in Europe.
Should be of interest for the companies who are interested in Local forecasts. Contact us for more information.
Although the effect of SPV is relative small in SE and FI, it is there. And, EQ aims to add all pieces in the market-jigsaw. A big thanks to the clients who notified us about the missing SPV in FI and CH.
Following the NP market, you have probably noticed the controversy surrounding the existence of evaporation and its potential size. Contact us if you want to know more about the important discoveries we made while doing this model iteration.
Tell us your favourite stations or define your regional area and EQ provides all related weather data and fundamentals. Full historical backcast, seasonal normals and many alternative forecasts, with from 72 hours to 45 days lead time. Contact us.
Included tables and more frequent updating of the price model. The plan is to within short run the model every time an incident occurs and report the cet. par effect in €/MWh.
All price areas, synchronised with the pan European spot market, are included. IR, AT and GR will be included as soon as data are available.
Added price forecasts for all price areas in the Nord Pool area, including the Baltic countries.
Added: Price forecasts for Germany, France, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia.
Started to roll out simulations from our pan-European spot and power flow forecast model. The first countries out are Spain, Portugal, Italy with six price zones. Power flow forecasts and capacity are available for all 50+ areas. In the days and weeks to come, we will open publication of price forecasts for more price-areas.
Hydrology is an essential factor in the price formation in several power markets in Europe. Particularly for the Nord Pool area. Imbalances in the hydrological situations affects the water values. In turn, the such imbalance causes relative large price fluctuations far outside of the Nord Pool market. This is precisely the situation now where a substantial hydro deficit pushes up the power prices far beyond Nord Pool area.
Energy Quantified has received an overwhelming positive feedback on our Excel integrator and API, found under our popular page: Data Search. Now we add functionality to it. Click on a curve and investigate the content, set desired data span and resolution. The idea is to facilitate data mining. Use the full power of our web page to follow the forecasts and link data into your analysis systems via our excel integrator and API.
In cooperation with SMHI, Energy Quantified now provides you a meteorologist on demand. Go to any of the SMHI pages and hit the chat button in lower right corner. Try it yourself.
Added full archive functionality on the weather comments and map pages. Pull out forecast with different lead time and compare comment to what was delivered.
The latest weather trends in the Nord Pool area has demonstrated the need to incorporate evaporation in the precipitation energy modelling. Evaporation is a feature we have supported from the outset with EC models. However, the GFS weather model does not support stock evaporation variables directly. Working with our colleagues in SMHI, our analysts has found an ingenious method of calculating the evaporation from the GFS output. Besides, providing a richer model, including evaporation in the GFS forecasts also makes the GFS and EC forecasts directly comparable.
Frequently you need to view the situation in a market adjoining to the one you focus on. The update provides a one-click option. How: Energy Quantified shows a dynamically list of area links, indicating all adjoining market to the one you currently viewing. Furthermore, this neat functionality works everywhere.
No analysis without interactive tables. Catching up the presentation part of our analysis we have started to add tables under “15 days”. The tables are, of course, responsive to all seven alternative forecasts and on the fly calculates shifts in forecasts and deviation to normal. Go on and take a look.
The change in navigation made it far simpler to switch back and forth between full report for a price area and drill down on individual variables. Take a look.
Added an overview report for 45 days. We called it “45 days”, hinting to the lead time and resolution on the default page. Although the default resolution is daily, you may switch back and forth between weekly, daily and hourly.
Tremendous improvements in user experience due to optimizations in the overall application speed and rendering performance.
Added aggregated precipitation energy, available under Nord pool. Energy Quantified models the net precipitation, simplified as received precipitation minus evaporation, in terms of potential energy. By coincidence, the evaporation has been very high so far this summer.
Added an overview report for intraday markets, called “96 quarters”. The page shows history and forecast of 96 quarters. You may switch back and forth between 15 minutes, 30 minutes and hourly resolution for all areas in Europe and Turkey.
The archive enables you to look at forecasts and historical data for any past dates Energy Quantified has been in operation. With an easy to use calendar interface, you may pic any date, and the forecasts instances for this date will appear. Furthermore, the actuals, backcast and normal for the period prior and after the date set. This will, for instance, enable you to benchmark how well a forecast hits say 10 days out in its lead time.
A lot of technical stuff under the hood is updated and upgraded. This enables us to meet our progress targets. Most visible is a complete redesign of the welcome page after you log on. The welcome page now gives three sections, 1. Message system, 2. How to get started and 3. Get data section where the Excel feeder and API is lifted to the front page.
Final scheduled exchange added to the database. Meaning, data is available via API and Excel integrator, but now yet presented on our web portal. This is an essential step in setting up the pan European spot model, due in July.
The goal is to make it easier to find what Energy Quantified offers and stand out. Furthermore, we want to give a better explanation of the relationship between Energy Quantified and Montel. We have also added dedicated Changelog and Roadmap pages.
Seasonal normals added for temperature, precipitation energy, wind power production, solar photovoltaic, consumption and residual load. Consumption and residual load normals include holiday effects.
Cloudiness determines the need for artificial light during the period with daylight.
Overview of the update schedule for seven of the most important weather forecasts. Perhaps something all power professionals should know by heart.
Vacation effect re-estimated.
Precipitation energy added for the NP areas.
EC medium term (45 days lead time) forecast launched with all weather parameters and fundamentals. Note: Forecasts available on 15 min resolution via the API and the Excel Integrator.
Backcasts, meaning model estimate of Actuals/Historic data, with best available input. Actaul is measured and received data. Frequently referred to as Historic data.
Excel integrator updated, with Ensemble functionality. Same for the API.
Upgraded publication system launched. Forecasts published to our database in near real time.
Version 3.0 of the consumption system launched. Added Kalman filters. Substantial improved performance.
Added Excel integration. Search, filter and retrieve data, direct from our entire database.
Full curve search added to web. E.g. get instant overview of all available data in any price area in seconds.
Added forgot password functionality. You may reset your password to something convenient on EQ's login page. EQ recommends that you use a secure password.
Made available an API that facilitates automatic download of all EQ’s data. Complete documentation in web format.
More variables added. Physical net export added to the platform. This is the first step in including a comprehensive power flow service. This will include variables like, actual and forested flow capacity on all borders and both directions, nominated flow (decisive for the spot market settlement) status overview throughout Europe, and all this synced with UMM messages, of course.
The area Nord Pool, NP, is added to EQ. Not including NP from the start was simply a slip in the hectic run-up to the launch. With this EQ covers all power markets and price areas in Europe, including Turkey, except Iceland.
EQ now works on mobile platforms. True to our Early Access approach we did little to facilitate mobile platforms before launch. A fix on this is now implemented as we made the left menu narrower, removed the right bar and put all in a list-format. The changes provide a decent and workable view of EQ on mobile devices. That said, this is only the start. Automated extracts and messaging are in the pipeline. Stay mobile with EQ.
A high level of system integrity and security is reflected in the complex automated password sent to you. We have introduced the option to change your PW to something more convenient. Just look up “Account” on app.energyquantified.com. That said, we advise you to use a suitable password vault and use machine populated passwords.
Our consumption system saw a significant upgrade when Mikkel Sveen launched the second iteration of the consumption system. It sure looks promising.
Download functionality. Click on the icon to the right on each graph and the associated data will load into an excel file.
Fixed an issue using Internet Explorer 11. EQ advises: Use the most modern web browsers, such as Microsoft Edge (the replacement for Internet Explorer) Chrome or Firefox. They are faster and safer.
The EQ platform opens for all eligible trial applicants. On opening day EQ offers all-weather relevant weather parameter, EQ weather indexes, weather driven fundamentals like wind power, SPV, thermal solar, load, residual load. Geographical EQ covers all price areas in Europe and Turkey.
Seven alternative weather forecasts were implemented and coupled with our fundamental models. This yields in total 20 updates each workday, plus two updates each week from the ECMWF medium-term model.
A web interface for end users was developed and fired up. Testing back and forth and found a template for proceeding development.
Fundamental models first started to run and produce viable results in our databases.
First weather models started in EQ’s tested environment.
Loaders for data set up and run on EQ’s databases.
EQ launched a simplified home page and set up accounts with Linked-In and Twitter was set up.
Staff met for a quick coffee and started to unpack computers, find chairs and set up the office. Within 24 hours we were on our way.