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Video: Spot Market Sensitivities

Hugo Birkelund - 16 January 2019 14:20

Have you ever wondered how price sensitive your spot market is? Which hours that could rise sharply or dive into the negative? 


As you know, Energy Quantified provides spot market forecasts throughout Europe. Now we use the model system to simulate and report the market sensitivities too. The aim is to provide insight into when a relatively small change the market balance could cause the price level to rise or fall sharply.

Deeper insight into the current market conditions 

Our reports on sensitivities reveal information about the market conditions that are not disclosed by the conventional price prognoses. For instance, could the night hours fall through the floor or come out surprisingly high? And what does it take to move the price 1, 2, 5, or even 10 €/MWh?

As an analyst, reports on market sensitivities reveal the current properties of the relevant part of the bidding/supply curve. At the same time they indicate to which degree the price effect of a shift in the market balance could be mitigated through import and export. The latter would, in turn, be affected by a wide array of contextual circumstances, like available exchange capacity, the price levels, and supply curves in the adjoining markets.

I have no doubt that, to grasp the net effect all these factors in €/MWh, one needs to simulate market sensitivities. Furthermore, due to the fast changing market conditions, sensitivities must be updated in close to real-time in order to capture the situation as of "now."

Energy Quantified explains you the main points in a short video.

The video shows you

  • How are the market sensitivities simulated?
  • How the market situation in the adjoining markets affects the sensitivities
  • How the amount of available capacity affects how sensitive a market is
  • Where to find the sensitivities for your area

Topics: Power Analysis- spot market sensitivities- price shift- unexpected price shift

Hugo Birkelund

Hugo Birkelund

Cofounder and CEO at Energy Quantified. He has since 1999 held various leading positions within development, marketing and sales of analysis platforms for NTE/PointCarbon and Markedskraft/MKonline. Before that he worked 10 years with research at ENRI and Statistics Norway. By education he holds a degree at the University of Oslo specializing in econometrics and mathematical economy. Hugo is the go-to person for questions related to EQ’s development, forecast models and data feed.

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Energy Quantified was founded in September 2017 with the aim of creating the most innovative data and analysis platform for the power markets. Here we will post updates on the progress of the services and descriptions of our models and features as they develop.

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